Fuel Emission Projection of Indonesian Manufacturing Industry Towards Net Zero Emissions 2060
Article Sidebar
Keywords:
-
Fuel Consumption, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Indonesia, Manufacturing Industry
Abstract
The growth of Indonesia’s manufacturing industry has the potential to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Therefore, this sector needs to become a key focus of emission control programs, aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The limited research comparing the contributions of manufacturing subsectors to national GHG emissions motivated this study. This research aims to (i) estimate projected GHG emissions from fuel consumption across medium- and large-scale manufacturing subsectors in Indonesia from 2025 to 2060 and (ii) determine the energy matrix with the lowest-emission scenario approaching the NZE-2060. GHG emissions are projected using LEAP software under four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), emission reduction (ER), clean transition 1 (CT-1), and clean transition 2 (CT-2). The projection results show that GHG emissions in 2060 will reach 593,520.08 Gg CO2eq (BAU), 320,734.36 Gg CO2eq (ER), 125,835.03 Gg CO2eq (CT-1), and 72,834.14 Gg CO2eq (CT-2). The CT-2 scenario produces the lowest emissions closest to the NZE-2060 target, while the ER scenario represents the most realistic pathway considering Indonesia’s renewable energy potential, but has to be complemented by other decarbonization efforts such as CCU/CCS technologies and biomass certification to achieve NZE-2060.
References
Adriati, Y., M. S. Pallu, M. Selintung, and B. Bakri (2020). Relevance Between Filtration Rate and Filter Media Thickness in Downflow Filter Systems. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 419(1); 012130
Atamanalp, M., M. Köktürk, A. Uçar, H. A. Duyar, S. Özdemir, V. Parlak, N. Esenbu?a, and G. Alak (2021). Microplastics in Tissues (Brain, Gill, Muscle and Gastrointestinal) of Mullus barbatus and Alosa immaculata. Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 81(3); 460–469
Badiger, S. and P. V. Nidheesh (2024). Coconut Shell Biochar for the Removal of Acetaminophen and Ciprofloxacin in Low Concentrations: Single and Competitive Adsorption Studies. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 63(44); 19120–19134
Bautista Quispe, J. I., L. C. Campos, O. Mašek, and A. Bogush (2024). Removal of Anionic Surfactant from Aqueous Solutions by Adsorption onto Biochars: Characterisation, Kinetics, and Mechanism. Environmental Technology, 45(26); 5723–5744
Changlor, N., C. Inchana, M. A. Sabar, B. Suyamud, and J. Lohwacharin (2025). Effects of Relative Microplastic–Biochar Sizes and Biofilm Formation on Fragmental Microplastic Retention in Biochar Filters. Environmental Research, 268; 120834
Conesa, J. A. (2022). Adsorption of PAHs and PCDD/Fs in Microplastics: A Review. Microplastics, 1(3); 346–358
Edwin, T., P. S. Komala, M. Mera, Z. Zulkarnaini, and Z. Jamil (2025a). Coconut Shell Biochar as a Sustainable Approach for Nutrient Removal from Agricultural Wastewater. Journal of Water and Land Development, 65; 177–184
Edwin, T., M. Mera, P. S. Komala, Z. Zulkarnaini, and A. S. Nabila (2024). Penyisihan Nitrat Menggunakan Kolom dengan Media Biochar dan Busa Poliuretan. DAMPAK, 21(2); 1–6. (In Indonesian)
Edwin, T., B. Primasari, and A. Purnama R (2023). Characterization of Microplastic in Trawl Fish Caught in Padang City (Indonesia) Coastal Area. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity, 24(1); 516
Edwin, T., Z. Zulkarnaini, B. Primasari, P. Sri Komala, F. Hannum Nst, and S. Najwa (2025b). Biochar Filter Performance with Serial Columns for Surfactant Removal from Irrigation Water and Filter Toxicity to Tilapia Fish. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1542(1); 012013
El-Sherif, M. S. and A. M. I. El-Feky (2009). Performance of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) Fingerlings. II. Influence of Different Water Temperatures. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 11(3); 301–305
Elawady, A., J. A. Hassan Mohamed, and M. B. Abid (2026). Advancements in Microplastics Detection Techniques and Their Multidimensional Impacts on Aquatic Ecosystems and Human Health. Journal of Hazardous Materials: Plastics, 2; 100025
Hossain, M. B., F. H. Pingki, M. A. S. Azad, A.-A. U. Nur, P. Banik, P. K. Sarker, B. A. Paray, T. Arai, and J. Yu (2024). Accumulation, Tissue Distribution, Health Hazard of Microplastics in a Commercially Important Cat Fish, Silonia silondia from a Tropical Large-Scale Estuary. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8; 1372059
Ji, G., Y. Xing, and T. You (2024). Biochar as Adsorbents for Environmental Microplastics and Nanoplastics Removal. Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 12(5); 113377
Leng, L., Q. Xiong, L. Yang, H. Li, Y. Zhou, W. Zhang, S. Jiang, H. Li, and H. Huang (2021). An Overview on Engineering the Surface Area and Porosity of Biochar. Science of The Total Environment, 763; 144204
Ma, C., Q. Chen, J. Li, B. Li, W. Liang, L. Su, and H. Shi (2021). Distribution and Translocation of Micro and Nanoplastics in Fish. Critical Reviews in Toxicology, 51(9); 740–753
Manga, M., B. E. Evans, M. A. Camargo-Valero, and N. J. Horan (2016). Effect of Filter Media Thickness on the Performance of Sand Drying Beds Used for Faecal Sludge Management. Water Science and Technology, 74(12); 2795–2806
Masura, J., J. Baker, G. Foster, C. Arthur, and C. Herring (2015). Laboratory Methods for the Analysis of Microplastics in the Marine Environment: Recommendations for Quantifying Synthetic Particles in Waters and Sediments. Technical Report 48, Silver Spring, MD
Olubusoye, B. S., J. V. Cizdziel, K. Wontor, E. Heinen, T. Grandberry, E. R. Bennett, and M. T. Moore (2024). Removal of Microplastics from Agricultural Runoff Using Biochar: A Column Feasibility Study. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12; 1388606
Permana, M. A., H. Widjajanti, and D. Rohendi (2023). Biodegradable Plastics: Biodegradation Percentage and Potential Microplastic Contamination in Seawater. Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability, 7(2); 74–79
Suárez-Hernández, L., A. N. Ardila-A., and R. Barrera-Zapata (2017). Morphological and Physicochemical Characterization of Biochar Produced by Gasification of Selected Forestry Species. Revista Facultad de Ingeniería, 26(46); 123–130
Sujiono, E. H., D. Zabrian, Zurnansyah, Mulyati, V. Zharvan, Samnur, and N. A. Humairah (2022). Fabrication and Characterization of Coconut Shell Activated Carbon Using Variation Chemical Activation for Wastewater Treatment Application. Results in Chemistry, 4; 100291
USEPA (2002). National Recommended Water Quality Criteria. Technical Report. Applications of Environmental Chemistry
Wang, J. and X. Guo (2020). Adsorption Kinetic Models: Physical Meanings, Applications, and Solving Methods. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 390; 122156
Wang, Z., M. Sedighi, and A. Lea-Langton (2020). Filtration of Microplastic Spheres by Biochar: Removal Efficiency and Immobilisation Mechanisms. Water Research, 184; 116165
Atamanalp, M., M. Köktürk, A. Uçar, H. A. Duyar, S. Özdemir, V. Parlak, N. Esenbu?a, and G. Alak (2021). Microplastics in Tissues (Brain, Gill, Muscle and Gastrointestinal) of Mullus barbatus and Alosa immaculata. Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology, 81(3); 460–469
Badiger, S. and P. V. Nidheesh (2024). Coconut Shell Biochar for the Removal of Acetaminophen and Ciprofloxacin in Low Concentrations: Single and Competitive Adsorption Studies. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry Research, 63(44); 19120–19134
Bautista Quispe, J. I., L. C. Campos, O. Mašek, and A. Bogush (2024). Removal of Anionic Surfactant from Aqueous Solutions by Adsorption onto Biochars: Characterisation, Kinetics, and Mechanism. Environmental Technology, 45(26); 5723–5744
Changlor, N., C. Inchana, M. A. Sabar, B. Suyamud, and J. Lohwacharin (2025). Effects of Relative Microplastic–Biochar Sizes and Biofilm Formation on Fragmental Microplastic Retention in Biochar Filters. Environmental Research, 268; 120834
Conesa, J. A. (2022). Adsorption of PAHs and PCDD/Fs in Microplastics: A Review. Microplastics, 1(3); 346–358
Edwin, T., P. S. Komala, M. Mera, Z. Zulkarnaini, and Z. Jamil (2025a). Coconut Shell Biochar as a Sustainable Approach for Nutrient Removal from Agricultural Wastewater. Journal of Water and Land Development, 65; 177–184
Edwin, T., M. Mera, P. S. Komala, Z. Zulkarnaini, and A. S. Nabila (2024). Penyisihan Nitrat Menggunakan Kolom dengan Media Biochar dan Busa Poliuretan. DAMPAK, 21(2); 1–6. (In Indonesian)
Edwin, T., B. Primasari, and A. Purnama R (2023). Characterization of Microplastic in Trawl Fish Caught in Padang City (Indonesia) Coastal Area. Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity, 24(1); 516
Edwin, T., Z. Zulkarnaini, B. Primasari, P. Sri Komala, F. Hannum Nst, and S. Najwa (2025b). Biochar Filter Performance with Serial Columns for Surfactant Removal from Irrigation Water and Filter Toxicity to Tilapia Fish. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1542(1); 012013
El-Sherif, M. S. and A. M. I. El-Feky (2009). Performance of Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) Fingerlings. II. Influence of Different Water Temperatures. International Journal of Agriculture and Biology, 11(3); 301–305
Elawady, A., J. A. Hassan Mohamed, and M. B. Abid (2026). Advancements in Microplastics Detection Techniques and Their Multidimensional Impacts on Aquatic Ecosystems and Human Health. Journal of Hazardous Materials: Plastics, 2; 100025
Hossain, M. B., F. H. Pingki, M. A. S. Azad, A.-A. U. Nur, P. Banik, P. K. Sarker, B. A. Paray, T. Arai, and J. Yu (2024). Accumulation, Tissue Distribution, Health Hazard of Microplastics in a Commercially Important Cat Fish, Silonia silondia from a Tropical Large-Scale Estuary. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 8; 1372059
Ji, G., Y. Xing, and T. You (2024). Biochar as Adsorbents for Environmental Microplastics and Nanoplastics Removal. Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, 12(5); 113377
Leng, L., Q. Xiong, L. Yang, H. Li, Y. Zhou, W. Zhang, S. Jiang, H. Li, and H. Huang (2021). An Overview on Engineering the Surface Area and Porosity of Biochar. Science of The Total Environment, 763; 144204
Ma, C., Q. Chen, J. Li, B. Li, W. Liang, L. Su, and H. Shi (2021). Distribution and Translocation of Micro and Nanoplastics in Fish. Critical Reviews in Toxicology, 51(9); 740–753
Manga, M., B. E. Evans, M. A. Camargo-Valero, and N. J. Horan (2016). Effect of Filter Media Thickness on the Performance of Sand Drying Beds Used for Faecal Sludge Management. Water Science and Technology, 74(12); 2795–2806
Masura, J., J. Baker, G. Foster, C. Arthur, and C. Herring (2015). Laboratory Methods for the Analysis of Microplastics in the Marine Environment: Recommendations for Quantifying Synthetic Particles in Waters and Sediments. Technical Report 48, Silver Spring, MD
Olubusoye, B. S., J. V. Cizdziel, K. Wontor, E. Heinen, T. Grandberry, E. R. Bennett, and M. T. Moore (2024). Removal of Microplastics from Agricultural Runoff Using Biochar: A Column Feasibility Study. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 12; 1388606
Permana, M. A., H. Widjajanti, and D. Rohendi (2023). Biodegradable Plastics: Biodegradation Percentage and Potential Microplastic Contamination in Seawater. Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability, 7(2); 74–79
Suárez-Hernández, L., A. N. Ardila-A., and R. Barrera-Zapata (2017). Morphological and Physicochemical Characterization of Biochar Produced by Gasification of Selected Forestry Species. Revista Facultad de Ingeniería, 26(46); 123–130
Sujiono, E. H., D. Zabrian, Zurnansyah, Mulyati, V. Zharvan, Samnur, and N. A. Humairah (2022). Fabrication and Characterization of Coconut Shell Activated Carbon Using Variation Chemical Activation for Wastewater Treatment Application. Results in Chemistry, 4; 100291
USEPA (2002). National Recommended Water Quality Criteria. Technical Report. Applications of Environmental Chemistry
Wang, J. and X. Guo (2020). Adsorption Kinetic Models: Physical Meanings, Applications, and Solving Methods. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 390; 122156
Wang, Z., M. Sedighi, and A. Lea-Langton (2020). Filtration of Microplastic Spheres by Biochar: Removal Efficiency and Immobilisation Mechanisms. Water Research, 184; 116165
Authors
Fawzia, A. A., Nurjani, E., & Harini, R. (2026). Fuel Emission Projection of Indonesian Manufacturing Industry Towards Net Zero Emissions 2060. Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability, 10(3), 175-188. https://doi.org/10.26554/ijems.2026.10.3.175-188
Copyright and license info is not available